Peace in our time? Scientist makes bold prediction that war is on the wane and will halve over next 40 years.

• University of Oslo research suggests number of countries at war will fall from one in six to one in 12
• Higher education, lower infant mortality and lower population growth are reasons why the world can expect a more peaceful future
• Current conflicts in Libya, Tajikistan, Syria, Senegal, Ivory Coast, Mauritania and Iraq will probably be over
• The risk of conflict will be greatest in India, Nigeria, Sudan, Ethiopia and Tanzania